Recently there have been claims on social media stating something similar to Greater Vancouver is set for the lowest year of housing sales this century.
If such a claim is true, this is worth paying attention to.
Why?
Vancouver property sales are an important part of the region’s real estate sector, which plays a significant role in the city’s economic wellbeing. Understanding why this slowdown is happening — and what it means — helps consumers, renters, and real estate professionals navigate the changing landscape.
So, is the claim true?
Greater Vancouver’s real estate activity has been slowing throughout 2025, and new data confirms the region is heading toward the lowest number of home sales since the year 2000. At the same time, purpose-built rental construction has increased vacancy rates and eased advertised rents — a rare shift in a persistently tight rental market.
This market update breaks down what’s happening, why it matters, and what the data actually tells us about the interplay between sales, rental supply, and market confidence.
Sales Are Down Significantly Across Greater Vancouver
According to the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) November 2025 report:
- 1,846 homes sold in November
- 15.4% fewer sales compared to November 2024
- 20.6% below the 10-year seasonal average
- Benchmark home price down ~3.9% year-over-year
Source: GVR Monthly Market Reports
These figures show a clear low-volume, soft-price market compared to previous years.
Is This Really the Slowest Sales Year “This Century”?
Short answer: yes — in the practical sense.
A recent analysis by Dexter Realty concludes:
“Sales in Greater Vancouver for 2025 will be the lowest total number of transactions since 2000.”
Source: Dexter Realty Market Report
CBC Vancouver has also reported the region is: “on its way to the slowest housing sales in a century,” based on MLS® data via GVR. (Source: CBC Vancouver)
To clarify:
The verifiable statement: 2025 is on track to be the slowest sales year since 2000.
But note that the “century” phrasing is journalistic shorthand, not a literal 100-year comparison.
Given year-to-date numbers and December’s typical volume, this analysis is well supported.
Purpose-Built Rental Growth Is Easing Rents
While interest rates and affordability pressures are the main drivers of slow home sales, the rental market is undergoing notable change.
Vacancy rates are rising
Metro Vancouver’s purpose-built vacancy rate reached 1.6% in 2024, the highest in a decade (except for 2020).
This increase is directly linked to growing rental supply.
Source: CMHC Rental Market Report
New rentals are being delivered rapidly
Metro Vancouver’s Housing Data Book reports:
- 8,665 new purpose-built rental units completed between July 2021 and June 2024
Source: Metro Vancouver Housing Data Book
CMHC’s 2025 Housing Supply Report adds:
- Purpose-built rental starts rose nationally
- Vancouver’s rental starts dipped ~10% year-over-year but remain above the 10-year average
- Rental construction accounts for a growing share of all new housing starts
Source: CMHC Housing Supply
Advertised rents are now softening
CMHC’s 2025 mid-year rental update confirms:
- Advertised rents are declining in some markets due to increased supply
- Rents for existing tenants continue rising, but more slowly
Source: CMHC Rental Market Updates
“Advertised rents are softening” means that the asking prices for newly listed rental units are starting to level off or decrease compared to previous months.
This does NOT mean that everyone’s rent is going down — it means:
- Landlords are listing new units at lower or more competitive prices
- Rent increases are slowing down
- More rental supply is available, so renters have more choice
- Vacancy rates are slightly higher, reducing pressure on pricing
In short:
Softening advertised rents = new rentals are not climbing as fast and, in some cases, are becoming slightly cheaper than before.
Existing long-term tenants may not see immediate changes, but the trend shows a cooling rental market driven by increased purpose-built rental construction.
Takeaway:
More rental supply equals higher vacancy, which leads to competitive pricing that ultimately brings easing advertised rents.
Real-world examples of this shift are already visible across Metro Vancouver.
For instance, newly completed purpose-built rental buildings — such as Sitka House in Port Moody — are offering incentives like one month of free rent to attract tenants. Incentives like these typically appear when vacancy rises and landlords compete for renters.
Are Purpose-Built Rentals Causing Lower Home Sales?
Currently: No — not directly.
What the data confirms
GVR, CREA, and major banks consistently cite:
- High interest rates
- Reduced affordability
- Buyer and seller hesitation
- Economic uncertainty
as the primary drivers of weak resale activity. Sources: (GVR, CREA and Reuters)
However, purpose-built rentals may be having secondary effects:
These effects are reasonable but not yet measurable:
More stable rental options = fewer “forced buyers.”
When vacancy was below 1%, renters often felt compelled to buy. Higher rental availability lowers that pressure.
Some investor capital is shifting to rental development.
Short-term rental restrictions, presale uncertainty, and new incentives have made rental projects more attractive than condo purchases for some investors.
Policy changes are favouring rental housing.
Federal/provincial programs have made rental construction more financially viable than condo projects.
These are supported hypotheses, but not the main cause of low resale volumes.
So, while interest rates and affordability remain the primary drivers of low resale activity, increased purpose-built rental supply may be allowing some households to remain renters longer, reducing urgency to purchase.
What About the Richmond / Cowichan Land-Title Ruling?
The Cowichan Nation ruling has introduced uncertainty about how Aboriginal title may interact with BC’s Land Title system. Legal experts note this could affect lender confidence in regions where territorial claims overlap with titled land.
Emerging real-world consequences
Early examples are already appearing.
In one reported Richmond case, a homeowner was unable to refinance his mortgage because lenders temporarily paused refinancing decisions on properties potentially affected by the ruling.
These instances are currently isolated, but they demonstrate how uncertainty can begin influencing lender behaviour even before decisions become formally widespread.
Market-wide impact? Not yet.
GVR, CREA, and CMHC data does not show measurable market-wide effects on:
- sales volumes
- prices
- time-on-market metrics
For now, the ruling remains a developing risk factor rather than a proven driver of the 2025 sales slowdown — but it is something the industry is watching closely.
The Facts
What the data shows clearly:
- 2025 is on track to be the slowest sales year since 2000 in Greater Vancouver
- Sales volumes and prices are both trending lower
- Purpose-built rental supply is increasing
- Vacancy rates are rising
- Advertised rents are softening
- Slow sales are primarily driven by interest rates and affordability challenges
What the data suggests (but does not yet prove):
- Improved rental conditions may be reducing urgency among some would-be buyers
- Investment capital may be shifting from resale condos toward rental construction
What remains uncertain:
- Legal uncertainty from the Cowichan ruling is creating individual consequences, but not yet market-wide trends
The 2025 Greater Vancouver market is shaped by historic sales lows, shifting renter dynamics, changing investment patterns, and new legal uncertainties.
For real estate professionals, staying informed about these structural trends is essential — especially as new rental construction and economic dynamics reshape buyer behaviour.
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